Officially classified as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday morning, Hurricane Helene is likely to cause floods in the South in the coming days. Will the storm go northeast and bring the rain to New York?
At the time of writing, the short answer is no.
However, according to Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, Helene’s effects might reach the Empire State, creeping up as far as central New Jersey.
AccuWeather predicts Helene will become a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday evening, with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph.
This “major hurricane” would hit the Florida panhandle on Thursday evening before moving north across western Georgia until Friday morning, according to Smerbeck. By then, Smerbeck estimates the hurricane will have subsided into a tropical storm.
Helene will weaken further when it moves across Tennessee and stalls.
A barrier against Helene
While Helene batters the South in the next days, Smerbeck predicts that a frontal zone will creep south from Canada toward New York City.
Given the moisture in the New York City area, Smerbeck predicts that the upcoming frontal zone will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms through Thursday evening.
Although responsible for some precipitation, the frontal zone will eventually welcome a region of high pressure, which will operate as a barrier against Helene’s repercussions, according to Smerbeck.
“There will be a battle going on,” Smerbeck remarked. “Will Helene’s moisture make it to New York? Right now, we believe it will stay south. We believe that the high pressure that comes down behind the front that passes through tomorrow (Thursday), as well as the high pressure that builds in Friday and Saturday, will be strong enough to keep the moisture to the south.”
Despite this justification, Smerbeck clarifies that “south” refers to areas as near as central New Jersey rather than the southern states of the United States.
Smerbeck says, “We’re forecasting dry weather for the city itself, but we’ll be monitoring it closely.” “Even if that moisture did come up, it looks like it would be somewhat on the light side, like the northern fringe of any rain from Helene.”
Forecasters expect the rain to arrive on Saturday, assuming it does fall. Smerbeck predicts that any rain from Helene will go even further south on Sunday, unless it stays in southeastern Pennsylvania or southern New Jersey—tthe two places near New York City most likely to get showers this weekend.
Conditions in New York City this weekend
As the front passes late Thursday, conditions in New York City should dry up.
“Friday looks to be a decent day with partly sunny skies,” Smerbeck told reporters.
While there may be some brightness on Friday, Smerbeck writes that AccuWeather updated their forecast to reflect cloudier skies than originally expected, as clouds from Helene will hover over the New York City area.
“This will truly be a great weekend weatherwise for leaf peepers in New England and most of New York state,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines stated.
AccuWeather predicts that temperatures in the Northeast will remain within 5 degrees Fahrenheit of their historical average.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data collected between 1991 and 2020, the average temperature in Central Park at this time of month is roughly 65 degrees.
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